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feature — Comments Off on Selections from the TTC Capital Budget Report 2011
12
Jan 11

Selections from the TTC Capital Budget Report 2011

A few interesting bits from this document, which — unlike its operating cousin — does not have notes made in blue ink, and thus has selectable text. Emphasis has been added. I was going to include page numbers but then I forgot. Apologies.

On Transit City:

The Official Plan was designed to ensure that no resident of the City of Toronto would be disadvantaged from a mobility perspective from not owning a car. That required higher order transit along those arterials. The TTC undertook an analysis of how best to serve that population growth and those arterials and the result was the Transit City Plan. This was a series of surface rail expansions within separated rights-of-way with sufficient capacity to handle the projected ridership demand for the next few decades.

On the Downtown Relief Line (yay!):

There really are limited options for dealing with the increasing ridership demands on the Yonge subway. Making maximum use of this critical asset, while expensive in absolute dollars, is a cost-effective step before considering the construction of a new multi-billion dollar Downtown Relief subway Line (DRL) to handle some of the ridership burden the Yonge line faces.

On the Downtown Relief Line (boo!):

Overall, it is expected that a 30%-40% plus (perhaps as high as 50%) increase in carrying capacity [due to Platform Edge Doors, Automatic Train Operation and the new Toronto Rocket Subway Cars] in the peak hours of operation will ultimately result from this work, pushing out the need for the DRL by many years.

Spending a ton in capital dollars to forestall the need to spend a ton in capital dollars is, I’d argue, kind of dumb.

On PRESTO Smart Card Payments:

($192 million not currently budgeted): This project reflects the costs (above and beyond the CSIF included funds of $140 million) estimateted [sic] a total of $332 million to implement the Provincially backed PRESTO fare collection system at the TTC. Staff is currently assessing the business case for an open payments system as directed by the Commission in May 2010 and pending this decision, funding from senior levels of government may be impacted.

Open Payments are still in the budget – it will be interesting to see if they continue on this track or revert to the PRESTO plan.

On Proof-of-Payment for the new Streetcars:

($87 million): The new LRV cars will require ticket vending equipment on board the vehicle and off-board at select TTC streetcar stops. In addition, infrastructure work is required for concrete pads and power to support the installation of off-board equipment at 150 street level stops.

A well-implemented Proof of Payment system should dramatically improve loading times (and thus reliability) on streetcar routes.

On involvement from other levels of government:

[W]hile the plans are practical and achievable, they are dependent upon funding from all three orders of government – funding that is predictable and long term.

In other words: You need to restore the goddamn subsidies, provincial and federal governments.

feature — Comments Off on Respect for a certain kind of taxpayer
11
Jan 11

Respect for a certain kind of taxpayer

Chris Selley for the National Post, who I gather enjoys being a contrarian above all else, tries to put a positive spin on many of today’s budget-related announcements. Here he explains that the $60 per year cut to the personal vehicle tax is entirely unrelated to the $60 per year increase in transit costs for Metropass users:

Of course there are financial consequences to cutting the Personal Vehicle Tax, but the fare hike is no more a direct result of it than any other budgetary measure: cutting the tenant defence fund or the environment office in London, or closing the Toronto Public Libraries’ urban affairs branch at Metro Hall.

Selley is right, of course. That the vehicle registration tax numbers line up with the Metropass fare hike numbers is coincidental, a weird quirk in the budgetary process. The fare hike — which is still, I caution, unlikely to really happen — is instead a direct result of a 17 million dollar cut to the TTC’s annual operating subsidy. Which is a direct result of the need to constrain costs even further than would be necessary if not for the mayor’s pledge to freeze property taxes and, yes, cut the vehicle registration tax.

Everything is connected. What the fare hike and the VRT cut represent, taken together, is a statement of priorities. This is more important than that. Vehicles over transit. Respect for a certain kind of taxpayer.

Service cuts and fare increases are often necessary, especially in times of fiscal shortfall. What’s so frustrating about today’s budget is that Ford was presented with a fantastic starting point. Surpluses and provincial transfers, plus a modest property tax increase — something the mayor campaigned on — and, sure, some efficiencies, could have easily held the line. That would have given city departments, managers and council a year to discuss the mayor’s goal of budget reductions for 2012.

But that’s not what we got today. Too bad.

feature — Comments Off on Let’s get fiscal
10
Jan 11

Let’s get fiscal

A CBC News article without a byline serves as a nice introduction to a couple of thoughts I have as we head into the city budget process this week:

Ford promised no new taxes during his election campaign, as well as getting rid of the $60 vehicle registration tax — which he delivered on in December.

He is already on record promising no spending increases and a property tax freeze for 2011, while at the same time promising no major service cuts.

“We’re going to have a zero per cent tax increase and we’re going to put more money in the taxpayer’s pocket,” Ford told CBC News in an interview in December.

via CBC News – Toronto – Toronto’s 2011 budget battle set to start.

First and foremost, this budget will be easy. There was a general surplus last year, plus a surplus at the TTC, which means that the pressure David Miller and his budget chief Shelley Carroll had to deal with in previous years is lessened his year, even with Ford’s cuts to revenue. The budget will balance without much effort.

The Ford administration is looking for a grand narrative to unfold over the next few weeks. One that says that his administration was able to unite a fractured council to deliver a budget — in record time, no less — that includes no tax increases and no “major” service cuts. Both Fords and their staff will attempt to spin this as a huge David-versus-Goliath victory, the culmination of the Ford-as-mythic-hero narrative. “The Gravy Train is Dead, see how easy that was?”

But it’ll be a one-time thing. Anyone watching the numbers know that he was left a gift by the outgoing administration: a one-time surplus that surely won’t be around come 2012.

The Left on council has to be careful not to help him with this narrative. Opposition for opposition’s sake won’t do anyone any good. The best tactic, I think, is to point to why the budget is so easy to balance this year: it’s because of the very same fiscal management of the previous council that Ford has spent months attacking.

Second: The big sticking point will be the definition of ‘major’ when talking about Ford’s pledge that there will be ‘no major service cuts.’ Some will argue that opposition councillors should just accept the ‘adjustments’ to various programs, cuts though they may be, as inevitabilities under the new regime.

But what this is about is honesty, a characteristic that Ford values highly. I’d understand and respect (but not vote for) an argument that called for service cuts in a bid to decrease government spending, but Ford hasn’t called for that. Instead, he’s promised that the city can restrict spending purely through efficiencies and cutting waste.

He should be held to that promise this week. Any admission that service cuts are necessary is an admission that he was wrong about the city’s finances.

feature — Comments Off on Big Words, Small Plan
06
Jan 11

Big Words, Small Plan

And with Councillor Karen Stintz now ensconced as the new chair of the TTC, she is adroitly managing the issue in a mature manner.

via How to bring Rob Ford’s transit plan into reality – thestar.com.

Gordon Chong, former GO Chair and a member of the Rob Ford transition team, got a thesaurus for Christmas and isn’t afraid to use it. His editorial in today’s Star is a pretty weak defence of a ‘transit plan’ that everyone knows isn’t very well thought out.

Transit-dependent riders from Scarborough are yearning for a convenient, fast, one-seat ride to relieve them of their current, slow, multi-transfer, multi-modal daily ride to and from work. And a subway is the most likely way to attract the discretionary rider out of the car.

Metrolinx says the ridership doesn’t justify an extension of the Sheppard subway, but more than 60 years ago the Yonge subway was started long before there were the requisite ridership levels to technically justify it.

Okay, well, first of all, whenever there’s a transit plan under discussion some loudmouth comes into the conversation saying “That won’t get me out of my car.” Like it matters.

Toronto is lucky enough to have a well-used transit system. We don’t need to sell transit as a great choice for commuters – commuters already use it every day. Our responsibility isn’t to dangle expensive carrots in front of the guy who loves the hell out of his car commute. We want to improve transit for existing users and create avenues for the continued ridership growth we’ve seen since for the last number of years.

Second, Yonge Street had a streetcar on it prior to the subway construction. They ran multi-car trains down the road with great frequency, as these were the days when the TTC knew how to operate surface transit like few else in the world. When capacity became a concern on the street, they moved to build the subway.

The economics of the day were different, but Sheppard is not a young Yonge Street, especially east of Don Mills.

The rest of Chong’s article is a standard mish-mash of talking points.

  • Ford has a mandate! He also promised to paint all the curbs in the city different colours so drivers would know where they were allowed to park – does he have a mandate to do that?
  • Planning for the future! The less-referenced side to this subways debate is the huge amount they add to the operating budget. Is it worth building a Sheppard Subway to Scarborough that might attract subway-level ridership in 75 years if it means, in the near-term, fares go up or bus routes are cut to covering an increasing operating shortfall?
  • The Private Sector Will Build And Operate Eglinton! For whatever reason, the private sector tends to shy away from necessarily money-losing operations like public transit. But keep reaching for those stars.
  • Money grows on trees! I thought this administration was supposed to be conservative.

The most telling sentence in this whole thing? This line:

Mayor Rob Ford does indeed have a significant mandate to move ahead on his promise to take as much public transit off the roads as possible

I ask: is the priority building effective transit or just getting it out of the way of your car?

feature — Comments Off on Transit Matters
05
Jan 11

Transit Matters

David Rider with The Star, in an article everybody linked to today:

And, despite fears that Mayor Rob Ford’s focus on getting more subway into Scarborough will kill light-rail-based Transit City, signs point to a hybrid plan with at least the Eglinton Crosstown LRT surviving, and Toronto paying a premium on the provincially funded expansion to get more of it underground and otherwise away from road traffic.

via Ford-Transit City hybrid plan in the works – thestar.com.

Here’s the thing about the big transit mess in Toronto right now: there are a bunch of players and all of them want to come out of this looking like geniuses who led big transportation initiatives. What we’re dealing with isn’t a simple LRT-versus-subways ideological battle—it’s a complicated mess of political back-and-forth tied up in: 1) an upcoming provincial election; 2) left-leaning back-room boys and policy wonks who are concerned that reactionary conservatism is the new hotness for Ontario voters; and 3) a relatively small pool of money earmarked for transit that, small as it is, represents the best opportunity for expansion we’ve seen in decades.

Those playing this weird game include:

Mayor Rob Ford – An SUV-driving, highway-loving kid of guy by his own admission, I think he’s actually the person who cares the least about all of this. He stated several times during his campaign that, should the province refuse to let him use Transit City funding for his subways to Scarborough, the city just wouldn’t build anything. The thing that matters to Ford is, of course, getting his way. He doesn’t want to come out of this looking like he compromised or in any way continued with a plan that will always be credited to his predecessor.

Karen Stintz – The alleged TTC Chair who did not speak once on the issue of declaring the TTC an essential service when it was debated in council. Has not expressed much of an opinion on any transit matter. Before becoming a Ford-boosting TTC chair, she campaigned to save Transit City alongside David Miller, owing to the fact that the Eglinton LRT – the crown jewel of the plan as a cross-town route with subway-level operating speeds and a big underground section in the middle – runs right through her ward. She seems willing to toe the mayor’s line on this, but his plan doesn’t officially contain any transit on Eglinton. Which you’d think would be a problem for her. Has an opportunity to be seen as an effective ‘bridge-builder’ if she can help broker a new plan. But probably doesn’t want to be seen as just carrying on with an Adam Giambrone legacy project either.

Metrolinx and Bruce McCuaig – The new, GTA-wide transit planning agency has the most to lose. If the mayor is able to steamroll through a change to Metrolinx’s vaunted “Big Move” plan, the next debate will be What the hell is the point of Metrolinx? They’re fighting for their very lives to preserve the fundamentals of the existing plan, even if it means making some small allowances to Ford’s get-out-of-the-way-of-my-car ethos. Eglinton, mentioned above, has emerged as the big priority. Metrolinx has always wanted to make changes to the line—at times they’ve suggested both running it with SkyTrain-style ITSC technology and running it elevated—but fundamentally they seem committed to the fundamentals of the line.

Dalton McGuinty and the Ontario Liberals – The McGuinty Liberals are in full-on election mode, preparing to battle Tim Hudak in the fall. Hudak’s platform looks to be little more than “Hey, these guys suck at governing” which, weirdly, could be pretty effective. Some people working in political circles are also convinced that the Ford win means there’s an appetite for more right-wing, gravy-busting politics. I’m not sure this is true, but the McGuinty Liberals are still in a tough position where they need to simultaneously not piss off the new mayor of Toronto by stonewalling him while also look like strong, effective leaders with a plan—through Metrolinx—for  transit in the GTA.

Eglinton is rapidly emerging as the central issue and the one that really matters. The Scarborough RT replacement will happen regardless of what mode is chosen, and Sheppard is not going to impact the city as much as the proposed Eglinton line would. (Finch West riders are left in the cold, alas.)

Eglinton matters to Karen Stintz because it matters to her Ward constituents. It matters to Metrolinx because it’s the big showpiece of Transit City, and thus their Big Move. It matters to McGuinty and the Liberals because it runs through several mid-Toronto ridings that could, conceivably, go blue in the fall.

And it matters to Rob Ford because he’s the only one who doesn’t seem to want it.

AFTERWORD: Total speculation zone, but I thought this quote from Metrolinx CEO McCuaig was interesting:

The Eglinton Crosstown LRT “reaches across the entire city; it connects to the regional systems, the various GO lines, it ultimately connects into Pearson airport and into the Mississauga transitway,” McCuaig said.

That caught my attention because both the connection to Pearson and to the Mississauga transitway were elements cut in the most recent round of Ontario budget cutbacks, prompting the “Save Transit City” campaign in the spring. Could the province be willing to restore some of that funding to push up the second phase of the line (to the airport and into Mississauga) as part of their 2011 election platform? That would add some juice to their popularity and give Metrolinx something to hang their hats on. And Ford would be hard-pressed to fight against it.

feature — Comments Off on Sports Analogies and Exaggerations
03
Jan 11

Sports Analogies and Exaggerations

The National Post’s Natalie Alcoba got to do a Q&A with Ford to mark the end of 2010. She actually handles things pretty well, which is a nice change from the “Why are you so popular?”-style of questioning he’s been getting from some reporters.

Best parts:

Q For 10 years as councillor you were, as you say, fighting for the little guy, and also fighting with your colleagues. So, how does being in charge change the way people react to you? Does it?

A Not really. When I go to the gas station or the restaurant, people still come up and say hi. I’m friendly to everyone I meet and people are friendly to me. My life hasn’t changed or my personality towards people hasn’t changed. It’s just a different position, but it’s still the same team. Except now instead of playing defence I’m playing centre, or something.

Sports analogy! Or something.

Also (and, I know, this is just the way he speaks) I really like how he cites the ‘gas station’ and ‘the restaurant’ (singular!) as places he runs into people.

Q What is the most important thing you want to do in 2011?

A Just continue watching how money is spent, and save the taxpayers money. I want to get the subways built and I want to get rid of the land transfer tax and this 5¢ bag tax. Although I never campaigned on it, that’s going to be something we’re going to propose doing, abolish the 5¢ bag tax. Get the city cleaned up, and make it a more liveable and prosperous city.

Alcoba doesn’t press him on the bag tax thing, but that’s likely because it’s a total holy-shit-did-he-just-say-that moment. More on this later.

Then there’s this admission that, hey, Scarborough and Etobicoke are really far apart:

Q What is the strangest request you’ve had since you’ve been mayor?

A I’ve had people ask me to do their shopping for them. I said ‘‘I don’t mind doing home visits, but I’m not going to do your groceries for you.’’ This one person called me, an elderly man, and I sort of felt sorry for him and he was just talking about how he can’t get to the store and would you mind picking this up for me. Honestly, if he lived a little closer to me, but it was way out in Scarborough. I was thinking, man if I was around the corner I don’t mind dropping in the store and buying it for him but I’m not going to go buy a bag of milk out here in Etobicoke and take it all the way up to Scarborough.

I’ll ignore the weird idea that the mayor would even consider doing some random dude’s grocery shopping and instead mention that, hey, wouldn’t it be great if someone proposed a transit line that ran from Scarborough to Etobicoke?

You’ve have to be crazy to be against something like that.

Source: Q&A: Mayor Rob Ford looks to 2011 | Posted Toronto | National Post.

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