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link — Comments Off on An idea, not a plan
22
Feb 11

An idea, not a plan

The National Post’s Chris Selley, as part of this week’s Posted Toronto Political Panel discussing the big transit news:

But this idea is not a suitable replacement for the plan that came before it, because none of the objections to that plan are reasonable enough to risk — to almost guarantee, in fact — getting absolutely nothing instead.

via Posted Toronto Political Panel: Toronto’s transit woes | Posted Toronto | National Post.

Bang on.

On another note: I listened to the February 17th edition of the Posted Toronto Podcast on my way to work this morning, where Matt Gurney, Ron Wadden and others discussed the same issue and it blew my mind. They essentially argued that Ford’s idea was a good one, as it’s just important that “something get built.”

I think people gloss over how close we were to having shovels in the ground. The Ford team hasn’t done anything that will bring transit expansion closer to reality — instead they’ve stood in the way of progress.

feature — Comments Off on The ins and outs of the city’s new transit plan
19
Feb 11

The ins and outs of the city’s new transit plan

Over on his blog, Steve Munro presents a fantastic summary of yesterday’s Metrolinx board meeting. It includes a good, succinct look at what the mayor’s new transit plan actually entails:

On Tuesday, representatives of Mayor Ford met with Metrolinx with an updated version of Ford’s subway plan:

  • Extend the Sheppard subway west to Downsview and east to Scarborough Town Centre (STC)
  • Extend the Danforth subway northeast to STC
  • Build the Eglinton LRT in tunnel from Jane to Kennedy
  • Operate express bus service on Finch West
  • Build a new subway yard at a location to be determined

via Metrolinx Contemplates Ford’s Subway Plan | Steve Munro.

Munro notes that Metrolinx has asked that, instead of a Bloor-Danforth subway extension, the Eglinton LRT be extended through the SRT corridor to Scarborough Town Centre. This is necessary, as I understand it, because any transit funded with provincial dollars must be owned by Metrolinx. (It also allows for further LRT expansion in the future, when we have a political climate that isn’t so steadfast against surface rail.)

The subtext throughout is that, while Metrolinx is compromising with the mayor, they’ve successfully defended the part of Transit City that matters most to them. Metrolinx seems to be very aware of the numerous logistical problems with Ford’s private funding scenario, but is happy to let the mayor and his team busy themselves trying (and likely failing) to build a Sheppard subway while real work happens on Eglinton.

Building the eastern section of the line underground (needlessly) isn’t ideal, but it’s apparently a sacrifice Metrolinx is ready to make. If and when this plan comes to City Council, I’d hope that one of the first motions made is to build the eastern section of Eglinton at street level, and put the savings toward construction on Finch.

Speaking of Finch, it’s really the big loser in all of this,  getting stuck with ‘express buses’ instead of the proposed LRT. Per Munro, Metrolinx Director Paul Bedford did a good job of pointing out how little sense it makes to sacrifice Finch for Sheppard:

Director Paul Bedford agreed noting that the Finch West bus is among the routes with highest ridership on the TTC at 52k/day, greater than the Sheppard subway at 47k.  Bedford argued that ignoring the Finch corridor is a serious problem, and more generally that surface transit routes carrying 60% of TTC ridership were an important part of the network.

I guess it should be said that, with a few exceptions like Councillors Anthony Perruzza, local representatives have not been active in advocating the preservation of the Finch and Sheppard lines.

I’m happy with how this compromise plan is developing as at least we’re keeping the Eglinton LRT, but that doesn’t excuse this process which has been fraught with delays. None of this was necessary and plans for transit expansion in this city are no better off than they were before.

For the record, before this mess happened, the plan was for a Sheppard East LRT to be opened in 2014, a Finch West LRT to be opened in 2019, and an Eglinton Crosstown LRT and Scarborough LRT to be opened in 2020.

link — Comments Off on Subtext: Metrolinx refused to compromise with Mayor’s office
17
Feb 11

Subtext: Metrolinx refused to compromise with Mayor’s office

Mayor Ford couldn’t hide from the media today, doing a short press scrum in between meetings with his Executive. Calling himself “300 pounds of fun”, he played down his brother’s earlier call for a strong mayor system and laughed off the suggestion that his brother has been the public face of the office. This despite the fact that his brother has clearly been the public face of the mayor’s office for several weeks now.

Whatever. His comments on yesterday’s pseudo-announcement that the city would attempt to get the private sector to finance the Sheppard line are interesting. Here’s what he said, as reported by the Globe & Mail’s Anna Mehler Paperny:

“I said I was going to build subways. I am building subways. I said if the public money’s not available, the private sector’s going to. And that’s exactly what’s going on,” he said Thursday. “We haven’t got any detailed information right now. We’re just working with a number of people, a number of groups, and I will let you know as soon as a deal is struck.”

via Confident Rob Ford sheds little light on plans for privately funded subway – The Globe and Mail.

The subtext on all this gets clearer by the day. Metrolinx refused to budge, so the Mayor has to take his ball and go home. And by ‘home’ I of course mean the private sector. Where everything is awesome but also cheap.

Ford has a ton of weird confidence in this plan, concluding that the private sector will buy into this plan because of the election results:

“I campaigned on it, people knew we had to get the private sector involved and obviously you saw the poll results – I did very well. People know you can’t always depend on government to build subways, and that’s where the private sector’s going to come in.”

Apparently there is no better inspiration for a multi-billion dollar business deal than a mayor who captured 47% of the vote.

link — Comments Off on Tiny magic unicorns set to finance city’s subway extension
16
Feb 11

Tiny magic unicorns set to finance city’s subway extension

Following on the Globe story below, the Toronto Star’s Tess Kalinowski and Robert Benzie have a few more details:

Under the mayor’s plan, Sheppard would be paid for using a combination of development charges and tax increment financing, an innovative tool former finance minister and key Spadina subway extension proponent Greg Sorbara introduced in 2006.

It enables municipalities to borrow against the future property tax revenue of land that is improved by having a subway nearby.

The key is you have to designate the land as such before any infrastructure is built.

via City eyes private partnership to extend Sheppard subway – thestar.com.

If – big if – land around subway stations is such a cash cow, we can only assume that the city is literally foregoing hundreds of millions of dollars a year because of underdeveloped areas surrounding existing stations.

I’m not saying that this is a plan doomed to failure, but I’m very skeptical that Sheppard stations will have ridership that offer the kind of return-on-investment that justifies huge infrastructure costs.

For reference, approximate daily ridership on mid-line Sheppard stations is 7,780, 5,600 and 2,330, for Bayview, Leslie – despite the IKEA! -, and Bessarion, respectively. (2008-2009 figures)

link — Comments Off on For sale: Sheppard Subway extension, lightly used
16
Feb 11

For sale: Sheppard Subway extension, lightly used

The Globe & Mail’s Kelly Grant has the scoop on upcoming transit announcements:

[Interim Chief of Staff Mark Towhey] said the city intends to seek a private-sector partner who would build, design and finance an extension of the Sheppard subway east to the Scarborough Town Centre and west to Downsview station.

If the plan is approved by the province and city council, the city would continue to own the longer Sheppard line. The city would pay back the private consortiums initial investment using tax-increment financing and an increased transit-oriented development fee in a narrow band along the Sheppard line.

via Rob Ford pitches private financing plan for Toronto subway extension – The Globe and Mail.

So many questions: is the city even allowed to hide debt this way? How do you structure this kind of deal so that it would appeal to a private company? Does this mean the rest of the Transit City funding stays in place? How surreal and scary is it that Mark “Cut all bus routes and let people car pool!” Towhey is speaking about transit matters?

This isn’t necessarily a bad outcome. It seemingly would allow the province and Metrolinx to focus their money and energy on more important routes like Eglinton while the Mayor’s Office screws around with the private sector for the next few years getting a deal done. Could be a lot of worse.

link — Comments Off on Eglinton LRT is top priority, says Metrolinx board member
15
Feb 11

Eglinton LRT is top priority, says Metrolinx board member

Paul Bedford, former chief city planner in Toronto and current member of the Metrolinx board, writes an editorial for the Toronto Star:

In my view, it is essential to tie any fixed rail transit construction to an aggressive land use intensification strategy and the expansion of the city and regional transit network.

This is especially true for subways and underground LRT lines, where strategic investment is clearly for the long term. The proposed Eglinton LRT certainly meets this test and will function as a subway for much of its length, serving communities across the city. It was first proposed in 1974 and is the absolute No. 1 priority.

via Ford’s critical 100-year decisions – thestar.com.

My read of the situation with the delayed transit plan, still being hammered out by the mayor’s office and Metrolinx, is that Eglinton is the sticking point. Metrolinx won’t budge on it.

Bedford also talks about the role underground transit has in fostering new development, which is an argument I quibble with because the Bloor-Danforth line has done little for neighbourhood development in many places.

Any future subway extensions must be linked directly to extensive mixed-use development that would generate 15,000-30,000 people living and or working within one square kilometre of targeted major stations. This would include the Sheppard corridor as far east as Victoria Park, in addition to existing and future stations located along the proposed Spadina subway extension.

The reference to Vic Park is interesting. A revised Transit City plan that includes a half-hearted Sheppard subway extension to Victoria Park, an extension of the Bloor-Danforth subway to Scarborough Town Centre (replacing the SRT) and the as-planned Eglinton LRT would seemingly fit within established funding constraints.

link — Comments Off on TTC Chair Stintz not involved with new transit plan negotiations
28
Jan 11

TTC Chair Stintz not involved with new transit plan negotiations

John Lorinc, writing for the Globe, gets an interview with new TTC Chair Karen Stintz and midway through she drops this bomb:

In any case, her fingerprints won’t be on the final deal. The mayor’s office has left her out of the high-stakes negotiations with Metrolinx and the province over Mr. Ford’s subway plan. Ms. Stintz gamely insists the talks “are taking place at the right level” and denies that she’s trapped between the competing political agendas of the mayor and Premier Dalton McGuinty.

via Karen Stintz, new TTC chair – The Globe and Mail.

She also restates her support for the Eglinton line, but seems resigned to having no real influence as to whether it happens or not.

It’s mind-bending to me that the mayor’s office has left the TTC chair out of all major transit decisions. If Stintz isn’t involved, and Ford self-admittedly doesn’t know much about the TTC, who the hell is leading the charge in the Metrolinx negotiations?

As a postscript, as the news unfurls over the next few weeks and Stintz spins whatever new plan we end up getting as the right thing for this city, keep this quote in mind. It’s from just this past April in an article by (yet again) John Lorinc:

Stintz says she supports the Metrolinx “Big Move” plan, which includes the LRT network. “We came together,” she told me on Friday, “because it’s not a partisan issue, it’s a city building issue.”

I understand adapting to the winds of political change, but some consistency sure would be nice.

link — Comments Off on Ford’s revised “subways” plan delayed
25
Jan 11

Ford’s revised “subways” plan delayed

Buried within the TTC uploading stories today comes word that the revised transit plan, being worked on by Metrolinx and the TTC at the request of the mayor, will not be presented within the next week or two as expected.

Natalie Alcoba:

The city, Metrolinx and TTC staff are still hammering out a revised transit plan, as per Mayor Ford’s orders that the city ditch a plan to build surface light rail lines in favour of tunnelling underground. But it appears that it won’t be ready by the end of this month, as previously hoped.

“I don’t have a specific timing for the completion of that work,” said Mr. McCuaig. Ms. Stinz said she does not expect a report by the Feb. 2 TTC meeting. “We’re working towards a solution but we’re not there yet,” she said.

via Metrolinx confirms Ford floated idea of handing TTC to province | Posted Toronto | National Post.

Steve Munro confirms the delay in a comment on his blog: “[The new plan] was to come in early February, now late February, and I’ve even heard March as a possibility.”

I have several questions about these delays, not the least of which is what the hundreds of people hired to work on the Transit City projects are doing during this period of uncertainty.

feature — Comments Off on TTC Chair Stintz hints reworked transit plan includes Sheppard Subway
23
Jan 11

TTC Chair Stintz hints reworked transit plan includes Sheppard Subway

Karen Stintz has taken to Twitter this Sunday, throwing around hashtags like candy and broadly hinting at what to expect when the Mayor reveals his reworked ‘Transportation City’ plan before the end of the month:

[blackbirdpie url=”http://twitter.com/TTCchair/status/29222655328522240″]

[blackbirdpie url=”http://twitter.com/TTCchair/status/29224611837116417″]

[blackbirdpie url=”http://twitter.com/TTCchair/status/29233060373336065″]

She also makes reference to Eglinton:

[blackbirdpie url=”http://twitter.com/TTCchair/status/29233998634950656″]

For the record, and ignoring all the platitudes that we’ll hear about connecting our city and completing what we started and blah blah blah, any extension of the Sheppard subway is a bad idea at this point. We will spend billions, wait a decade (or more) for it to open and ultimately end up with a line that carries fewer people that most of the downtown streetcar routes.

The new subway and its stations will add tens of millions to the TTC operating budget, necessitating either rapid and steep fare increases or — more likely — continued cuts to ‘low-performing’ surface routes. It doesn’t make sense, and the poor outcomes and negative press that will inevitably result from such a white whale of a project will have negative impacts on future transit expansion in our city.

UPDATE: Because this is going to be a popular topic in the coming week, here’s a link to the TTC’s own cost estimates on subway versus LRT projects. (Via, of course, Steve Munro.) The short of it is that to build the currently planned Eglinton LRT, extend the Sheppard Subway to Scarborough Town Centre and replace the Scarborough RT with a Bloor-Danforth subway extension we’ll need to spend 13.27 billion dollars. Current provincial funding commitments amount to 10.94 billion dollars. (I’m not taking into account any penalties or fees the city will have to pay after breaking/renegotiating contracts, but they’re likely to happen.)

link — Comments Off on No mandate for Ford’s transit plan
20
Jan 11

No mandate for Ford’s transit plan

A good start to today with this press release from Leger Marketing:

While Mayor Rob Ford, the Toronto Transit Commission and the Ontario government are reviewing Toronto’s transit expansion plan, the city’s residents favour keeping the current “Transit City” light-rail transit expansion program, but are open to moving more of the new lines underground. These are among the key findings of an independent survey conducted by Leger Marketing between January 12-16, 2011.

via LEGER MARKETING | Torontonians want light-rail alongside subways: Poll.

Ford has continuously made reference to his mandate to cancel Transit City. “The people have spoken” and all that. This certainly does a lot to destroy that argument.

I still have a huge issue with people phrasing it as a binary “Subways or Light Rail” question, because it way oversimplifies the real issues at play. It’s like asking someone if they’d prefer broccoli or ice cream.

The full report is available online from Leger. Some other highlights:

  • “Almost two thirds (65%) saw the TTC’s “Transit City” plan as an effective step forward, versus 18% who disagree.”
  • “Most people (62%) would oppose cancelling or changing the current plan if it means higher costs or a longer wait to get new transit.” This is a huge, important statistic.
  • “Further questioning reveals that most people agree that transit plans should not change every time that a new government is elected (89%) to ensure long term needs are met.”
  • A full 67% of respondents disagreed with the claim that we should build subways “because it’s what Rob Ford promised in the election.”
  • 76% of those polled indicated that we should keep the light rail lines, either as planned or moving more of them underground. (Having a “move more of them underground” option kind of rankles me a bit, as even diehard supporters of Transit City would love to see more underground transit, but rational people recognize that the cost is daunting and perhaps not achievable.) Only 15% of people support cancelling the Transit City light rail lines and building subways instead.

The question of the day: What kind of lousy populist panders to only 15% of the population?

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