05
Oct 11

Ford stays out of provincial race as Ford Nation goes up in smoke

The Toronto Sun’s Don Peat:

Days before the May federal election, Ford came out endorsing Prime Minister Stephen Harper and the federal Conservatives.

But Ford won’t be throwing his support behind Progressive Conservative Tim Hudak, NDP Leader Andrea Horwath or Liberal Dalton McGuinty

“There are no plans to,” Adrienne Batra, the mayor’s press secretary, told the Sun.

Batra did not provide Ford’s reason for staying out of this race.

via Ford staying out of provincial election | News | Ontario Votes | More | Toronto Sun.

Here’s the reason: he’s unpopular.

That Ford didn’t endorse Tim Hudak — the only guy he would ever endorse — is the clearest sign yet that the mayor is aware of his declining popularity. This inaction speaks louder than any poll. Rob Ford knows he doesn’t have the ability to help Hudak in the polls in the 416.

Don’t get me wrong: Ford staying out of the race is the right move. He would have been right to stay out of the federal race too — there really was no personal upside to his endorsement, as Harper promised little for Toronto — but that didn’t stop him. The mayor’s desire to endear himself to the provincial and federal Conservative parties is strong. He didn’t hang that picture of Mike Harris in his office for nothing, nor was it coincidental that Stephen Harper ate barbecue at Ford’s mother’s house over the summer. The Fords seem thrilled to be back in the good graces of the conservative political machine that once rejected them.

Ford’s silence on the provincial race — which, I have to assume, came because the powers-that-be decided his endorsement wouldn’t help anybody — is further proof that, if Rob Ford’s ascension was representative of any kind of political sea change, it was only a fleeting one. A brief, weird moment in time where Toronto collectively rolled the dice on a fascinating, one-of-a-kind politician, who spent his campaign tooling around the city in a (maybe improperly paid for) massive RV, telling everyone he could lower their taxes while maintaining their services.

Election night on October, 25, 2010 was not a massive rightward shift for Toronto. It was not the dawn of some great Ford Nation that holds sway over other orders of government beyond the City of Toronto’s borders. It was just an unlikely man winning an unconventional election in uncertain times.

That doesn’t mean that Ford couldn’t take a second term, of course. Just that, come 2014, the incumbent candidate will have to be a different Rob Ford, running on different terms, telling us something new.


05
Oct 11

Transit City, rise from your grave! (Or, at least, let’s build something on Finch)

On Councillor Josh Matlow’s radio show this week, the councillor half-wondered if the Transit City plan could be resurrected, given the recent flavour of council, which has shown a willingness to go against the mayor.

NewsTalk 1010’s Russ Courtney:

Matlow says transit advocates believe that because the mayor has been forced to alter his agenda the time could be right to return to the plan scrapped by Rob Ford after taking office.

“They smell blood in the water, says Matlow. “They’ve seen the Mayor not win every single vote. They’re wondering if this is an opportunity to revive Transit City from the dead.”

“Any discussion about whether or not (Transit City) get revisited would be done in conjunction with Metrolinx,” said TTC chair Karen Stintz.

via NEWSTALK 1010 – IN-DEPTH RADIO :: Matlow Wonders If Transit City Could Rise From the Dead – Local News :: Local News Stories.

As John Michael McGrath over at OpenFile notes, Stintz’s response on the issue is surprising, because you’d expect an outright denial and instead she side-stepped.

Reviving Transit City — and by Transit City at this point we mean the surface/underground alignment for the Eglinton LRT, the Sheppard LRT, and the Finch LRT — is challenging, but not so far outside the realm of possibility. Given construction timelines, switching the plan for Eglinton back to surface operation on the eastern and western edges of the line is doable. That said, I’m not sure Metrolinx — who has positioned the crosstown as a regional line with future links into the 905 — would be eager to accept yet another change to the plan.

I get where Matlow’s coming from, though. Given council’s newfound enthusiasm for rejecting the mayor’s most unworkable ideas, a council debate on the current transit strategy is warranted. We’ve been promised a council vote on these issues for months now. Even if the idea of reviving Transit City doesn’t come to the forefront, a thorough look at the mayor’s quest to privately fund a Sheppard Subway extension deserves scrutiny.

Remember, there’ still $300 million in committed funding from the federal government for transit on Sheppard. No one is entirely sure where that’s going. Attaching those funds to a Sheppard Subway extension that probably won’t ever happen is a waste. Applying that cash where it’s needed — say, on Finch West, in the form of light rail or a bus rapid transit project — could provide immediate, transformative benefit to an overcrowded corridor.


04
Oct 11

10% budget reductions, fewer cops on the streets, and reluctantly defending Bill Blair

From Rob Ford's "Financial Impact" platform document, his pledge to hire 100 more police officers. At present, it seems he will actually take hundreds off the streets through attrition to meet budget targets.

This week’s drama at City Hall: the police budget. The mayor wants all departments to cut their budgets by 10%, but Chief Bill Blair — whose budget is mostly labour costs — has refused, saying that he can’t do that without taking an unacceptable number of officers off the streets.

The Toronto Star’s Robyn Doolittle:

On Friday, the chief presented a scenario that would see a 1.5 per cent increase to the service’s $915 million operating budget, rather than the mandated 10 per cent cut.

Blair’s refusal to make concessions set [Councillor & Police Board Member Michael] Thompson off, who decided to publically question whether it was time to find a new chief if he won’t meet the budget target.

Ford made a near identical threat in January to force hiring concessions from Blair.

On Monday, in addition to his meeting with Ford, Blair set out on a daylong media offensive, giving a number of high-profile radio interviews where he spoke harshly of Thompson and defended his budget reductions.

via Toronto News: Chief Bill Blair tries to strike a budget deal with Rob Ford – thestar.com.

First: Let’s stop pretending that budgeting is easy. If running a government was as simple as pointing at budgets and demanding they be made smaller, anyone could do it. Hell, why stop at a 10% reduction? Why not 20%? Or 50%? All these blanket requests do is penalize the departments that have been run efficiently in recently years, forcing them to volunteer service cuts to meet their targets.

Second: A 10% reduction year-over-year is not an ‘efficiency’ target. It’s a number that requires service cuts to achieve. And that’s fine, I guess — some people like service cuts –, except that the mayor is attempting to have his cake and eat it too: claiming efficient victories while city departments scramble to gut services to meet his targets. In the case of the police service, the mayor’s request has a clear and direct outcome: he’s taking police officers off the streets. He can’t hide from that reality. There will be fewer police officers on Toronto’s streets this year and next year because of Rob Ford.

Third: Not that fewer police officers on the streets is necessarily a bad thing. Conventional wisdom is that Toronto spends too much on policing relative to its declining crime rate. Still, it has to be noted that Rob Ford campaigned on adding 100 police officers to the force, but instead has taken several times that many off the streets. It’s also fair to ask where the reductions in the force are coming from, because it sure would be a shame if, say, community policing in priority areas took a hit in favour of traffic enforcement.

Fourth: Bill Blair’s actions during the G20 are indefensible, which is why it’s challenging to write this: he shouldn’t resign. Setting aside that weekend where Toronto turned into a police state for no real reason — and I know, that’s hard — Bill Blair has been an effective leader of the Toronto Police Services, embracing a more liberal approach to public safety. If he goes, he’ll be replaced by the same guys who thought Julian Fantino was awesome at his job, and who seem to view allegations of corruption and excessive force as assets. It’s not worth going down that road.


03
Oct 11

City Council Scorecard Update: Team Ford looks shaky with Port Lands & Service Review votes

Toronto Council Scorecard

October 2, 2011: Download (PDF) - Download (PNG) - Google Docs

This one’s big. I’ve added new votes to the City Council Scorecard, covering items from the regular city council meeting on September 21 and the special meeting related to the Core Service Review on September 26. Of the ten votes added, the mayor came out on the losing end of five of them. One councillor, Gloria Lindsay Luby, saw her Ford Nation percentage — the metric that tells us how often councillors vote with the mayor on major items — drop from 87.5% to 68% over these two council meetings. Most councillors also saw their Fordiness level drop, with two members of Ford’s Executive Committee — Michael Thompson and David Shiner — dropping out of the 100% loyalist club on votes relating to the Christmas Bureau and Community Environment Days, respectively.

It’s possible to both overstate and understate the impact of these numbers.

New Votes



The votes added:

  • EX9.6 — The item relating to the revitalization of the Lower Don Lands & Port Lands. What a saga this was. A more charitable blogger would describe this “consensus” outcome as a win for all involved, but that blogger isn’t me. This was a huge, resounding loss for the mayor, his brother and the strategists working behind the scenes who are doing what they can to come up with a list of publicly-owned assets to sell. Because the mayor’s side blinked before this item could go to council in its original form, I’ve scored the result differently than other votes, using a snazzy purple. It doesn’t count either way toward the overall Ford Nation percentages.
  • PW7.9, Motion 2 — Earlier this month, as part of what would appear to be a thorough quest to rid Toronto of the pedestrian and cycling infrastructure that bothers him on his drive to work, Councillor Denzil Minnan-Wong called for a review of the scramble intersection at Yonge & Dundas. The request for a study was tacked on to Minnan-Wong’s downtown traffic study — something worth being wary of — and was made without consulting the local councillor beforehand. This is becoming a pattern. Motion 2 was an amendment by Councillor Gord Perks that asked  that the city not bother with a study of the pedestrian scramble. It failed.
  • EX10.1, Motion 3A — Councillor Gloria Lindsay Luby had a public break-up with the Ford administration last week, voting against several items relating to the Core Service Review. She also moved several amendments that resulted in some of the mayor’s most significant losses yet. This motion by Luby exempted any consideration of privatizing the Toronto Parking Authority — a revenue-generating asset — from this year’s budget process. Her motion carried, despite an attempt to whip the vote down by the mayor’s staff, and the TPA is saved. Hard to say whether the outcome was borne out of a desire to maintain TPA revenues or simply because councillors know how much their residents value cheap parking.
  • EX10.1, Motion 3B — Another Luby motion, this reversed a KPMG recommendation that would see the elimination of the Public Realm Neighbourhood Improvement Program. The program is a big hit with local businesses and neighbourhood groups, and little analysis was done to measure the potential economic drawbacks from killing the program. A very closed vote — once again whipped by the mayor — that saw Team Ford lose due to renegade runs by James Pasternak and Frank Di Giorgio.
  • EX10.1, Motion 6A — It’s not easy to get politicians to vote against seniors or kids. This motion by Josh Matlow preserved the Toronto Youth Cabinet and the Toronto Seniors Forum, both of which had been targeted for cuts. They’re both committees that allow underrepresented populations to engage themselves further in policy and politics. It’s worth noting that the initial wording of Matlow’s motion was stronger — it stipulated that the two committees should be saved outright — but was later made softer, so that now the future of both groups will be considered by the budget committee. This was also a whipped vote, with the mayor overturned thanks to rebel button pushes by Gary Crawford, Michelle Berardinetti and Frank Di Giorgio.
  • EX10.1, Motion 7A — This Ana Bailão motion saved Community Environment Days from the chopping block. They were identified as non-core by the KPMG study, and have been criticized in the past for being forums for councillors to promote themselves in their community. But they also bring in tonnes of recyclables and hazardous waste, which might otherwise get dumped on the street somewhere. As above, the vote was whipped, but Pasternak and — surprisingly — David Shiner went against the cheat sheet.
  • EX10.1, Motion 11 — Councillor Mary Fragedakis’ attempt to save Christmas — or, at least, the publicly-funded bureau that distributes gifts to the needy in December — failed on a 25-20 vote, despite a somewhat-surprising show of support from Ford ally Michael Thompson. Apparently the city will seek to continue the work of the Christmas bureau through partnerships with not-for-profit groups.
  • EX10.1, Motion 16A — This amendment by Councillor Maria Augimeri would have protected the Hardship Fund — a set of social supports available to low-income residents, created in the face of provincial cutbacks to welfare and other social programs in the Harris era — from further consideration as a 2012 budget cut. It barely passed, 23-22, with Councillor Jaye Robinson in dissent.
  • EX10.1, Recommendation 2B — KPMG recommend the city look at selling off — or closing — the three theatres it owns. Council opted to move forward with that recommendation in a close vote. Councillor Gary Crawford was later unveiled as the new chair of a task force dedicated to determining the future of these theatres.
  • EX10.1, Recommendation 7 — In another KPMG recommendation, the consulting firmed suggested that the city stop planting so many damn trees. (We’ve been told they don’t employ anybody.) The city had a rather ambitious plan to expand the tree canopy across the city — something that not only can work to make people happier but can also reduce the risk of illness — but councillors opted to pare it back with this recommendation in a close vote. (Note: Based on a previous vote relating to this item, I’m pretty sure Councillor Raymond Cho’s vote on this item was a mistake. If anyone can confirm, let me know and I’ll add a footnote.)

Trend Watch

The big news is the general downward trend, as the mayor’s council support gets nibbled away. As mentioned, Councillor Lindsay Luby dropped 19.5 points, falling below the arbitrary 70% threshold, so I’ve switched her from the blue team to the orange team. Middle Councillor Josh Matlow dropped 12%, while Mary-Margaret McMahon dropped 14%. Ana Bailão dropped eight points. While Rob Ford, all in all, still seems pretty effective at marshalling support amongst right-leaning councillors, the centrist bloc — which started the term sympathetic to the mayor’s agenda — has rapidly jumped off the bandwagon.

How to overstate this: Rob Ford is totally screwed. There’s no way he can maintain control of council going forward. A day of reckoning is at hand.

How to understate this: Nothing really changed. Rob Ford still got the most critical parts of the service review past council, not to mention the new user fee policy and voluntary separation program. They’ve still got the votes when they need them.

The pivotal change we’re likely to see coming out of this is a note of caution coming from the mayor’s office. Whereas the last few months have been marked by a series of chest-beating displays of power, they’d be smart to tread more softly from here on out, as they’re really only one wavering ally away from losing votes on key items.

Batting Average

For those who love baseball — or are even vaguely familiar with the idea of baseball — I’ve added a ‘batting average’ stat to the full version of the scorecard. This lays out, as a percentage, how successful the mayor has been at winning major votes. The mayor’s batting average stands at 70%. (Or, if you’re so inclined, .700.) Prior to the September council meetings, it was 80%.

Questions

Questions about the Council Scorecard? Read my notes on methodology. Also, you can email me.


28
Sep 11

Six Years of Budget Balancing Strategies: Rob Ford’s 2012 approach presents false choice

For the last six years, City Council has dealt with each budget shortfall with a mixture of surplus funds, new revenue projections, property tax increases, investment income and spending cuts/efficiencies. The 2012 approach under Mayor Rob Ford has been different.

Update: I’ve made a minor edit to the chart above to clarify how the implementation of the Land Transfer Tax & Vehicle Registration Tax changed the city’s financial situation. Quick summary: in 2008, both new taxes combined to take about $175 million in budget pressure off the city’s books. That new money was folded into expected revenues for future years, but LTT revenues tend to surpass staff estimates, resulting in extra cash in 2009, 2010 and especially 2011.

Through this Core Service Review process, the (growing) group of councillors opposed to Mayor Rob Ford’s fiscal strategy has continuously complained about a lack of information. While Budget Chief Mike Del Grande and assorted hangers-on have been quick to cite a figure of $774 million as the opening “pressure” for 2012, they’ve been less forthcoming with revenue figures that will significantly reduce that pressure.

Increased revenues from the Land Transfer Tax in 2011 alone look to total almost $80 million. And remaining surplus dollars from the 2010 and 2011 budget years could total another $100 million or more. Add in potential investment revenues, dividends from Toronto Hydro, assessment growth and other miscellaneous revenue lines and that big scary $774 million figure looks to drop down to something a lot more manageable.

The chart above reveals why this revenue information is so critical: each year, that opening pressure figure — which, it should be noted, was bigger in 2010 than it is this year — is brought down through a variety of strategies. Yes, there are spending cuts and efficiencies — Rob Ford’s favourite things — but also other revenues. Each year — until this one — the budget has been balanced without apocalyptic talk of slashing childcare, closing libraries and decimating public services or else raising property taxes by 35%.

That’s a false choice. It’s one that ignores the balancing strategies used over the past five years that have kept the city moving forward.

A note on sustainability

Critics would point to the chart above and say that the budget balancing strategies employed by Mayor David Miller, Budget Chief Shelley Carroll and the rest of the the left on council were largely unsustainable, short-term fixes, relying too heavily on reserves and other one-time funding sources.

And, for the most part, that’s true.

That said, if you believe — as even right-leaning councillors like Giorgio Mammoliti and Doug Ford seem to these days — that the city’s structural deficit is due in part to the province, who reneged on its responsibilities for supporting things like transit, child care and welfare, then one-time strategies tend to be the best Toronto can hope for these days. Unless the province comes to the table and commits to uploading more transit costs, a truly sustainable 2012 budget — one that doesn’t completely destroy the kind of public services that contribute to the economic viability of our city — is nearly impossible to achieve.

An Alternate Path

That doesn’t mean, however, that there aren’t paths Toronto can take toward fiscal independence.

  • A service review process and efficiency study — like the one we’ve just been through — was a good idea, but the timeline needed to be longer. Set annual goals to increase across-the-board efficiency and work with management to achieve them. You’ll save more money this way than you will with layoffs.
  • Set a long-term path forward for residential and commercial property tax rates. A multi-year strategy to put the average residential tax levy on par with, say, Markham would bring in vastly more revenue. Commercial rates should continue to decrease relative to residential. Review tax increase deferral and cancellation policies for seniors and disabled residents to ensure we’re not kicking anyone out on the street.
  • Consult with Metrolinx on their upcoming revenue strategy to ensure that a fair percentage of revenue from road tolls — an inevitability in this province — go toward transit operating costs, in addition to capital.
  • Review parking rates and increase them in downtown, high demand areas. Think like the private sector.
  • Look at new revenue sources, including a City of Toronto sales tax. Big cities across the world have one, and they’re not dying because of it. We keep hearing about the necessity of hard choices: here’s one.

The key is to think long-term and not to rush toward slash-and-burn fixes. More than any other level of government, municipal public services are directly tied to economic success. We can’t afford to risk that.


27
Sep 11

Special City Council Scorecard: Core Service Review votes reveal growing council opposition

Votes Rob Ford's Team Lost at the September 27, 2011 special meeting of City Council. Click for bigger.

At today’s special City Council meeting on the Core Service Review, the mayor’s team was on the losing end of seven votes. Though it’s not fair to call it a staggering rebuke, it stands as more evidence that Rob Ford is losing his grip on City Council and will continue to have trouble getting controversial policies approved without compromise.

Today’s scorecard is particularly interesting because we also have copies of the “cheat sheets” that were distributed to friendly councillors by members of the mayor’s staff prior to the vote. (All credit to City Hall journalist Jonathan Goldsbie for posting copies of the sheet: here’s part one & part two.) Of the cheat sheet items that weren’t left ‘open’ — meaning councillors could vote with their hearts — seven of them were defeated after several of the mayor’s traditional supporters went against him. Councillor Gloria Lindsay Luby in particular has distanced herself from the mayor over the past couple of days, disparaging the entire Service Review process for forcing councillors to vote for cuts without relevant information in front of them.

I’ll have more commentary on this later, but for now, the data.

Special City Council Scorecard: Motions on Amendments Relating to the Core Service Review Recommendations

Disclaimer: There are a TON of votes here and I may have made mistakes. All apologies in advance for any small errors.


26
Sep 11

No “Car Free Day” proclamation from Mayor Ford

Due to either a lapse in protocol or simple ideological objection, Rob Ford’s office opted not to sign the mayor’s name to a proclamation declaring “Car Free Day” in Toronto this year.

Beginning in 2005 and continuing through to last year, the mayor of Toronto has proclaimed every September 22 as Car Free Day — a day in which people try to avoid using their cars and stick to walking, cycling or taking public transit. In doing so, this city aligned itself with a bunch of other cities around the world who also celebrate a Car Free Day. The 2010 proclamation proclaims that Toronto celebrates Car Free Day because it is a city “committed to improving the health and quality of life of its residents, with cleaner air and [recognizing] the importance of alternative transportation options.”

The proclamation text also indicates that “[an] increase in TTC ridership and a shift towards active commuting by walking and cycling to work indicates that residents are … doing their part to fight air pollution and traffic congestion.”

Car Free Day is missing from the list of Rob Ford’s Mayoral proclamations for 2011. When I asked Dan McDermott of the Ontario Chapter of the Sierra Club — the organization behind Car Free Days in this province — about the missing endorsement, he indicated that at least two councillors approached the mayor’s office about a proclamation, and an official application was made, but that ultimately the request was denied. (McDermott also told me that the formal application-for-proclamation was not made a full six weeks in advance, which gave the mayor’s office a reason to deny beyond the obvious “we like cars” rationale.)

Does this matter? Not really. Even the biggest enviro-booster has to admit that Car Free Day is little more than a token. A well-meaning token, but a token all the same. It’s never noticeably impacted the number of vehicles on the road and the sad reality is that, for a good percentage of this city, giving up their cars for a day and still making it to work on time are opposing forces. The kicker: with cuts to bus routes and changes to the standards that govern crowding on transit vehicles, things are getting worse for those outside the core who may want to ditch their cars, not better.

Still, I would submit that this story, like the change to the city’s press release boilerplate after Ford took office, stands as an interesting example of how the sitting mayor sets the values of our city. For David Miller, signing his name to a document that declares “Toronto is recognized as a world leader in the fight against climate change and prides itself on being one of the greenest cities in the world” was as natural as putting his shoes on in the morning.

For Rob Ford, it’s not. He wears different shoes.

The Proclaimers

By the end of September last year, David Miller had issued 103 mayoral proclamations. In his first full calendar year as mayor, Rob Ford is close behind that pace, having issued 102. The majority of these proclamations are the same from year-to-year, with a few exceptions:

Proclamations made by David Miller in 2010 that were not made by Rob Ford in 2011: Best Buddies Month; Beta Sigma Phi Week; BIA Week; Black Music Month; Car Free Day; Creativity & Innovation Week; Data Privacy Day;  Day of Reflection on the Genocide in Rwanda; Emancipation Day; Football Week in Toronto; Girl Guides of Canada Day; International Day in Support of Victims of Torture; International Literacy Month; Jazz Week;  Khalsa Day; Magazine Week; Malaria Day; Marathon Week in Toronto; March of Dimes Month; Missing Children’s Month; Mobile Innovation Week; Mois de la santé bucco-dentaire; Naval Day; Ontario Coaches Week; Oral Health Month; Organ and Tissue Donation Awareness Week; Parental Alienation Awareness Day; School Crossing Guard Appreciation Day; Set Sail for Hope Day; Sickle Cell Day; St Lawrence Centre for the Arts Day; Stop Brain Disorders Week; The Queen’s Own Rifles of Canada Day; Toronto Tourism Day; Vimy Ridge Day; Wiphala Festival

Proclamations Made by Rob Ford in 2011 that were not made by David Miller in 2010: Administrative Professionals Week; Basketball & Hip-Hop Culture Month; Bike Month; Community Health Week; Companies and Communities for Kids Day; Congential Heart Defects Awareness Day; DAVM Awareness Month; Elder Abuse Awareness Month; Foot Health Month; Foursquare City Day; GTA Minor Hockey Week; Harold Green Jewish Theatre Company Day; Histiocytosis Awareness Day; Injured Workers’ Day; International Mother Language Day; Italian Heritage Month; National Biotechnology Week; Neil Young Day; Oral Health Day; Police Week; Primary Immonodeficiency Day; RED Day; Red Tape Awareness Week; Rugby Week in Toronto; Scout-Guide Week; Sears Drama Festival Week; Spina Bifida and Hydrocephalus Awareness Month; Storytelling Week; Toronto BIG SAVE Blood Donor Day; Toronto Outdoor Art Day; Veterinary Week; Vision Health Month; World Hepatitis Day

I’ve left out some that are obviously one-time-only proclamations, like “2010 Celebration Day” or “Juno Week.”

This isn’t really useful or meaningful data as it’s impossible to determine if any of the same groups that were awarded proclamations in 2010 applied again in 2011. (Or vice versa.) This should only be regarded as an information exercise. An incredibly nerdy information exercise.


26
Sep 11

Ford cuts his own staff, then suffers the consequences

The Toronto Star’s Robyn Doolittle:

By his own frugal doing, Ford’s office is short-staffed. Since his victory last October, they’ve struggled to establish an overarching communications strategy and a post-campaign narrative. The Ford brand is murky at the exact moment it’s needed most: selling unpopular cuts to a public that doesn’t want to take its medicine.

The mayor’s spokesperson, Adrienne Batra, spends most of her time managing the brother’s screw-ups.

via Toronto News: Has Rob Ford lost his grip? – thestar.com.

John Lorinc got people talking on Friday with a story on a potential rift between the mayor and his brother Doug , stemming from discontent over the way this administration lost control of the waterfront story. The Star’s David Rider, in a blog post, went so far as to report a rumour that the elder Ford ditched His Worship after a Lingerie Football game, forcing the mayor to take the subway home. (Yeah, that’s a sentence you just read on a political blog.)

But I don’t think a Doug/Rob split is the real story. I’m not even sure such a rift is conceivable. Instead, I think Doolittle nails the underlying issue facing the Ford administration with her quote above: this mayor simply does not have the staff complement in his office to implement the kind of communication and political strategies necessary to effectively navigate the storms he’s been facing.

And the storms are only going to get worse over the next few months.

If you listen to Ford’s (rare) public speeches, they’ve been relentlessly repetitive for months now. He essentially just lists a bunch of mostly-token accomplishments, nearly all of which were achieved in his first couple of months in office (eliminating the vehicle registration tax, cutting council expense budgets) or, in actuality, have not yet been achieved at all (privatizing garbage collection west of Yonge Street; building more subways). He’s a mayor in desperate need of a new message: one that resonates in the current political climate. One that doesn’t seem so stale.

But the people he needs to craft that message appear not to have the capacity to do so. And that capacity isn’t there because the mayor chose to cut it, taking $700,000 out of the mayoral office budget this year.

In other words: the mayor cut a government program — his own office budget — and there were immediate, far-reaching consequences that impacted said government’s ability to effectively do its job. If the mayor needs an example of why cutting staff or resources from a department might be a bad thing, he’s got one viewable from his own desk.

It’s almost poetic.


23
Sep 11

A lack of leadership, coherence and action in aftermath of Marathon Meeting sequel

Marathon Meeting 2: Electric Boogaloo is the obvious joke, or maybe Marathon Meeting 2: Judgment Day, but I kind of like Marathon Meeting 2: The Legend of Rob Ford’s Gold.

But let’s move on.

On Monday, the mayor’s executive committee held yet another marathon meeting. This one was a bit shorter, wrapping up around 5:30 a.m on Tuesday morning. And, despite continuing to build the good will I have toward the people who live in this city and the lengths they’ll go to defend the things they value, the meeting ultimately suffered from the same drawbacks that most sequels to blockbuster movies do: it felt a bit repetitive and maybe a little unnecessary.

This isn’t a knock on the hundreds of citizens who — once again — took time off work to show up and make their case for cuts. They spoke and, for the most part, effectively delivered the message that Toronto never voted for cuts to service. But, as the hours and deputations piled up, there was the sense that this setting — the executive committee – was no longer an important battleground. That, given the mayor’s maybe-declining popularity and the increased willingness of councillors to move against Ford’s once-iron grip on council, the message voiced again and again by deputants in Committee Room 1 at City Hall is already being heard.

That’s not to say that Ford is defeated or being made irrelevant. Far from it. But any fear that the Rob Ford-led administration would simply be able to steamroll through their agenda over the next three years has been effectively erased. The anger is getting to people: popularity is waning, slogans long forgotten. Political alliances are splintering — even, I’d speculate, within the executive committee itself — and tempers are flaring like never before.

The mayor relented this week. Both on the waterfront and on service cuts. That’s big.

What the executive committee approved

For the most part, the executive committee on Monday continued their pattern of being a lame duck group that continues to pass the buck and dither. There seems to be a concerted effort to drag things out in such a way that staff and consultants can shoulder the blame for any service cuts. For a mayor who ran on his purported ability to effectively and easily manage the city’s budget — buoyed by his experience watching a decade’s worth of similar budgets — the mayor has been mostly absent through this process, waiting for others to toss out ideas.

In Rob Ford’s fiscal plan documents, revealed late in last year’s campaign, he promised to save $695 million in the 2012 budget year. He said he could find $409 million in efficiencies — which would presumably not negatively impact service levels — and $200 million through staff reductions. I guess we’re just supposed to accept at this point that these numbers, presented by his campaign, were complete and total fabrications with no connection to the city’s real fiscal situation.

Anyway, Reporter Don Peat at the Toronto Sun has a nice list of the few things the committee actually signed off on as potential cuts in next year’s budget. They’ll be debated at a special meeting of council this Monday:

– Closing some museums funded by economic development’s cultural services activities

– Reducing community and neighbourhood development activities

– Eliminating the public realm’s neighbourhood improvement program

– Cancelling the requirement for paid-duty officers at construction sites

– Trying to sell the Toronto Zoo, the Toronto Centre for the Performing Arts, the Sony Centre, the St. Lawrence Centre for the Arts and Heritage Toronto

– Try to privatize Riverdale Farm, High Park Zoo and Far Away Farm but, if no interested parties can be found, do not close.

via Mayor-a-thon meeting aftermath | Toronto Sun.

As a collection of cuts goes, it doesn’t look all that fearsome. There is an unfortunate lack of detail attached to most of these, which will probably cause the most anguish come Monday. How are councillors supposed to approve closing museums if they don’t actually know which museums they’re talking about? Similarly, what’s the economic cost to eliminating public realm and neighbourhood development activities? The City didn’t implement these programs one day because they were bored: these things exist to make local businesses happy and more profitable.

The paid-duty item is probably a slam dunk, as no one seems altogether happy with the current status quo. (Councillor Doug Ford did defend the practice earlier this year, though.)

Other contentious issues: a buyout offer for city staff and a new user fee policy. The staff buyout covers about 700 employees, and the plan is to use some of the 2011 budget surplus — which won’t be a small chunk of change — to cover the immediate costs associated with the buyout. The challenge here is, again, a lack of detail: which departments will lose people? Can they afford to be short-staffed? What sort of institutional knowledge and skill will leave the building when these buy-outs are approved? And is there a more effective way to make use of 2011 surplus dollars?

The new user fee policy seems to be, essentially, “let’s have higher user fees!” We’ll see how that goes.

An enormously unsuccessful budget process

If it’s not clear by now, this whole core service review process amounts to a colossal collection of screw-ups from the Ford administration. Even if you support the quixotic quest for cuts and efficiencies, a prolonged, public-facing approach — one that left every public service the city provides on the chopping block for several months — is not a good way to go about things. It’s left the mayor unpopular, councillors nervous and residents wondering if there’s anyone at City Hall with an actual, honest-to-god plan for this city.

One that doesn’t involve slashed public services, more crowded buses, a dirtier city and the installation of El Toro Disney at the water’s edge.


21
Sep 11

“The item as amended carries unanimously, 45 in favour”

As expected, Waterfront Toronto’s plan for the Port Lands is — more or less — safe. This is nothing less than a major defeat for Rob Ford, with significant implications for the power dynamics on council going forward.

A big day.